Cricket Match Prediction Calculator
Match Projection & Chase Scenario Studio
Manual match inputs · model estimates, not a live score feed.
Chase outlook
Chasing team · not a calibrated forecast.
Team outcome summary
First-innings projection
Scenario assumptions: future scoring pace 8.33 runs/over; wicket rate from current innings. No team, venue or weather adjustment.
Model assumptions
The scenario holds future rates fixed. Each legal ball is modeled as a wicket with probability h, otherwise a Poisson scoring event with mean μ = (future runs/over) ÷ [6(1−h)]. Wicket deliveries score zero in this model. Play stops at the last wicket or the allotted balls; the target determines win, tie and loss.
This stylized model has not been fitted to historical match outcomes or calibrated for teams, batter quality, bowlers, venue, phase, weather, extras or changing tactics. It is not DLS or WASP. With zero observed wickets, Auto assumes no future wicket risk; use an explicit assumption if appropriate.
ⓘ These are model outcomes, not measured match odds.
Run-rate comparison
Both rates are expressed in runs per over.
Read the situation in balls.
One over = 6 legal balls
12.4 means 12 overs + 4 balls
12 × 6 + 4 = 76 balls, not 12.4 decimal overs
Wides and no-balls do not count as legal balls.
Formula & worked example
CRR = 100 ÷ 12 = 8.33 runs/over
Runs needed = 161 − 100 = 61
RRR = 61 ÷ (48 ÷ 6) = 7.625
A final score of 160 ties a winning target of 161. Super Over outcomes are not modeled. First-innings constant-pace projection = runs + CRR × remaining balls ÷ 6; the wicket-stopping model adjusts only future scoring.
Frequently asked questions
Is this an official win predictor?
No. The displayed percentage is an outcome of the stated mathematical scenario, not a validated real-match forecast. Rules references explain cricket terminology; they do not certify this model.
Why is 12.4 not a decimal?
The final digit is a count of legal balls after completed overs. Twelve overs and four balls are 76 legal balls, or 12⅔ overs for rate arithmetic. Enter 12 in Overs and 4 in Balls.
What changes in 1st innings mode?
The target field and win/tie/loss summary are hidden. The result shows the expected final total under the model, its middle 80% outcome interval and a constant-pace comparison. This interval describes the model’s own variability, not its real-world accuracy.
Can I use a rain-revised target?
Use the officially announced winning target and revised total overs. This tool does not compute DLS targets or decide whether the competition’s minimum-over rules have been satisfied.
What if the chase or innings has ended?
Reaching the winning target ends the modeled chase as a win. Exhausting legal balls or losing ten wickets below the target ends it as a tie at target minus one, otherwise a loss. Competition tie-breaks, penalties, retirements and forfeits need separate interpretation.
Use the officially announced revised target; this tool does not calculate DLS.
Sources & references
Independent educational tool · no ICC, DLS or WASP endorsement. Source identities are not accreditation seals. Canterbury research is background reading, not validation of this scenario model. Source basis checked 19 October 2026.
Compare cricket run rates, project an innings and explore transparent chase scenarios with wickets and legal balls.
